Sunday, April 5, 2009

Stock Market Trend-To Follow or not to follow a trend

By: Clint Jhonson

Many individuals who are new to stock market trading, investing, or day trading are keen and ardent followers of the Stock Market Trend. Many amateurs in trading depend on trends to buy and sell stocks, hoping to make some money. Many do make money by following trends, but not as much as the professionals do. Amateurs in day trading forex currency also follow trends and do make some money, but not as much as the professionals do. In many cases, they may even lose money by following a trend. Basically a trend is the direction that the market will take for a certain period of time. The trend may be for several weeks, months, and even years. A trend or prediction of a trend is based on the technical and fundamental data available and its analysis.

A 'Bull' market trend occurs when prices of stocks rise on a daily basis as more and more investors buy stocks, expecting to sell the stock for a profit at a later date, maybe in a few weeks or months. A 'Bear' market trend is when prices start sliding and every investor wants to sell quickly and make as much profit as possible. This is a herd mentality where everyone is running in one direction, either to buy or sell. This Stock Market Trend of a 'Bull' or 'Bear' market and herd mentality not only applies to the stock market, but trends also apply to other markets and financial instruments like mutual funds, gold, real estate, etc. Amateurs involved with day trading forex currency also follow trends and are prey to the same problems that plague amateurs and investors in the stock market.

Following a trend may be beneficial for some early bird investors and traders who have bought early when the prices are rising and sell quickly when the prices start to slide. But most investors and traders adopt a wait and watch policy and either buy when the prices are quite high and hold on to the stocks, even when prices are falling, in the hope that prices will rise and they can make a profit, but eventually sell at a loss. The professionals, whether in day trading forex currency, or the stock market, buy stocks and currency when prices are low or going doing, and sell when prices are high or moving upwards. In short, professionals go against a Stock Market Trend, and make money when the trend reverses. The professionals start selling when amateurs and investors start buying stocks as the price rises in a 'Bull' market trend, and start buying when the investors sell in a panic in a sliding 'Bear' market trend. To become a successful day trader or investor, an individual must do what the professionals do and not go along with the herd. This leads to disasters as seen in the rapid meltdown in the stock market recently, where millions of investors lost trillions of dollars.

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